📊 First edition; prediction markets just dunked on Wall Street

GM. This is PredictionDesk - your daily briefing on prediction markets.

Think of us as your morning coffee for the prediction market world - the news, the memes, the moves, all in 5 minutes or less.

First edition. Day one. We're hyped you're here.

Here's what we got for you today:

• 🎰 FanDuel and DraftKings both launch prediction market products

• 🧪 Kalshi launches research division, claims they beat Wall Street

• 🏒 Chicago Blackhawks make prediction market history

• ⚖️ Regulatory battles heating up across multiple states

• 📉 Recession odds just hit an all-time low

• 🎄 Which Christmas song is taking the crown?

Let's get into it.

FANDUEL + DRAFTKINGS ENTER THE CHAT 🎰

Two major launches this week signal that prediction markets are no longer niche.

FanDuel Predicts - FanDuel and CME Group launched a prediction markets product in five US states, with plans to expand in early 2026. One of the biggest names in sports betting is now in event contracts. (Reuters, Dec 22)

DraftKings Predictions - DraftKings formally launched its own CFTC-regulated prediction market product. Analysts are framing it as a serious strategic bet. (Investors.com, Dec 23)

Why this matters:

FanDuel reports ~50 million users. DraftKings reports ~30 million. That's 80 million people who may soon see "prediction markets" in their app.

Distribution wins. And this is a lot of distribution.

KALSHI SAYS RETAIL BEAT WALL STREET AT CPI 🧪

And they've got the data to back it up.

Kalshi Research is now live - a new arm of the company dedicated to providing internal Kalshi data to academics and researchers.

Their first research piece makes a bold claim: according to Kalshi's analysis of their CPI prediction markets vs. professional forecasters, retail traders on Kalshi outperformed Wall Street at predicting inflation. (Kalshi, Dec 22)

The data suggests that everyday traders betting on CPI numbers have been more accurate than billion-dollar institutions with teams of economists. If it holds up to scrutiny, that's a big deal for the "wisdom of crowds" thesis.

Why this matters:

Prediction markets have always claimed to be "truth machines" - aggregating information from people with skin in the game. Now there's research (from Kalshi, granted) backing it up.

And they're not stopping there:

Kalshi says it will host the first-ever Prediction Market Conference. Calls for abstracts and registration are open now. (Luana Lopes Lara on X, Dec 22)

BLACKHAWKS MAKE PREDICTION MARKET HISTORY 🏒

The Chicago Blackhawks just announced a first.

Kalshi says this is the first time a professional sports team has partnered with a prediction market. The timing: the Blackhawks' Centennial season. (Kalshi, Dec 23)

Why it matters:

Sports betting is a $100B+ industry. Prediction markets are a different product, but the crossover potential is obvious.

This partnership puts prediction markets in front of one of the most engaged fanbases in sports.

REGULATORY ROUNDUP ⚖️

The prediction market legal landscape is moving fast. Here's where things stand:

The big move: Coinbase is suing Connecticut, Michigan, and Illinois (filed Dec 19), arguing that states can't block trading on federally-regulated prediction markets.

If Coinbase wins, it could unlock access for millions of Americans currently stuck on the sidelines. If they lose, expect more state-by-state fragmentation.

Also on the radar:

• Massachusetts AG vs Kalshi - State seeking to block Kalshi from operating sports prediction markets. (Reuters, Dec 9)

• CNBC + Kalshi deal - CNBC signed a deal to integrate Kalshi prediction data starting in 2026. Mainstream media legitimacy. (Reuters, Dec 4)

MARKET MOVES 📈

ODDS & ENDS 📊

• 📉 Recession odds at all-time low. 25% chance of a recession next year on Kalshi - the lowest level since the market launched. (Kalshi on X, Dec 23)

• 🛠️ $44B in volume, 2019-type UI’s. Helius CEO Mert Mumtaz called out the space: prediction markets have massive volume but interfaces that feel outdated. His pitch: verticalized, contextual designs - like betting on Solana hitting $500 directly from CoinMarketCap. (Mert on X, Dec 23)

• 👻 Vitalik's hidden take. He posted a solid perspective on prediction markets... on Farcaster. The gist: prediction markets create "an environment for expressing opinions that favors truth seeking." (Vitalik on Farcaster, Dec 23)

MARKET SPOTLIGHT: CHRISTMAS SONG SHOWDOWN 🎄

The market: #1 song on Spotify this week? (Dec 25)

Volume: ~$157k (Polymarket, Dec 23)

Wham dethroning Mariah Carey finally after 30 years running.

Betting against her? Bold move.

THAT'S A WRAP 🎬

That's it for day one.

Tomorrow we're back with more markets and more moves.

If you made it this far - thanks for being here. Tell a friend. Forward this email. Help us build the go-to newsletter for prediction markets.

See you tomorrow.

The PredictionDesk Bros.